Monday, August 28, 2006

Tracking Ernesto

Wherein we're hoping this has no impact on our St. Augustine Thanksgiving plans

And here's hoping you people in Orlando and Miami have no problems.

Dr. Jeff Masters, the Weather Underground's Director of Meteorology, writes:
Ernesto is a more significant threat to the Carolinas While much of the focus of attention has deservedly been on Ernesto's impact on Florida, I believe the best chance of Ernesto hitting the U.S. as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane will come in the Carolinas. The GFDL model has Ernesto as a borderline Category 1 or 2 hurricane with a pressure of 975 mb Thursday night upon landfall in South Carolina. The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models predict that Ernesto will stall off the Carolina coast, as the trough of low pressure drawing it northeastwards accelerates away. High pressure will then build in, forcing Ernesto back to the west towards the Carolina coast. If this happens, Ernesto will have plenty of time over the warm Gulf Stream, and could easily reach Category 2 or 3 strength before making landfall in the Carolinas. The NOGAPS model depicts a similar scenario, but predicts Ernest will stall further north, then move west, threatening the Mid-Atlantic states.


Blogger Icepick said...

We'll be fine, despite some of the idiotic comments from local forecasters. Here in Orlando we will get a mighty wind and a bunch of rain, but we should be largely fine. The most likely problem will be flooding and power loss in older areas of town (Winter Park, I'm looking at you!), and the possible deaths from carbon monoxide poisoning as inexpereiced people use gas-powered generators for the first time.

The coast looks to get a pretty good lashing, though. I expect to here lots of reports on beach erosion in the coming days. Also, this will probably become a campaign issue, as this will be one more reason for the insurance companies to boost their rates.

I haven't been following the path after Florida too closely, but I suppose this could be tough on the Carolinas. Even though it will be a little worse on my area, this is reason to hope the storm comes straight up the state. If it crosses the Florida-Georgia state line where I-75 does, then this will just be a big rainstorm for parts north.

Thanks for the kind thoughts. And take care cleaning out those gutters!

8/28/2006 01:08:00 PM  

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